Posts Tagged ‘bombing’
I have a new piece in Muftah today on the evolving conflict between Turkey and IS, and Turkey and the PKK.
You can check it out here: Turkey’s War against the Islamic State is also a War Against the PKK
I wanted to add the following addendum on the motive and timing of the end of the Turkey/PKK ceasefire.
I don’t believe that the Suruc bombing was manufactured by President Erdogan or any other facet of the Turkish government or military as an excuse to renew hostilities with the PKK. However, I do believe that Erdogan is seizing the opportunity that has presented itself in order to play some very cynical domestic politics. In addition to the obvious military and national pride motives behind the PKK airstrikes, it is very possible that, as Turkey technically has no government (coalition talks are still technically ongoing), President Erdogan is taking advantage of the moment in an attempt to allow the AKP to win back its majority in a fresh set of elections. Renewed hostilities between the PKK and Turkey could very well serve to alienate the Turkish voters which helped the Kurdish HDP party break the election threshold in June and bring back nationalist voters which had deserted the AKP for the more extreme nationalism of the MHP. If this is the case, and we will know soon enough, then Erdogan will have proved he is willing to sell out Turkish peace, security and prosperity for the hope of holding on to his unchecked power and further isolating Turkey’s Kurdish population.
In Diyarbakir on Friday, two explosions erupted at the final HDP rally prior to Sunday’s elections. The latest reports indicate that four people died, including 2 teenage boys, and close to 200 hundred were injured (update- more than 400 with at least 25 critically) as a result of the blasts. Initially blamed on a malfunctioning generator, it now appears that a gas cylinder packed with ball-bearings was deliberately planted and responsible for one of the two explosions that were heard. Immediately after the explosions, police targeted the crowd with tear gas and water cannons. The rally was canceled and some of the crowd regrouped outside the HDP headquarters in the city where party leader Selahattin Demirtas (who was scheduled to speak around the time the explosions occurred) urged HDP supporters in general, and those gathered in Diyarbakir specifically, to remain calm. His message seemed to be taken to heart and no rioting occurred. Instead, peaceful protests in the form of banging pots and pans and flickering lights in both Diyarbakir and Istanbul. Prime Minister Davutoglu condemned the attacks. President Erdogan offered condolences and promised to investigate the bombings before going off on a tangent about how roaches in the old Prime Minster’s residence forced him to build a new palace for himself. He also expressed his annoyance at the fact that Demirtas was refusing to answer his calls, which lead to a curt war of words between the two. Despite the obvious news-worthiness of this event, today’s pro-government papers lack any front page coverage on it.
The superlative importance of the Kurdish vote in this election has been explored in depth numerous times and there is no need to reiterate it here. The potential for Kurds to decide the election makes it safe to assume that the perpetrators behind these attacks wished to affect the outcome of the election by either 1) provoking violence 2) intimidating HDP voters 3) pinning the attacks on the PKK or 4) a combination of all three. Motives one and three would feed into the pro-government media machine’s characterization of Kurds as uninterested in sustaining the peace process. and, ultimately, as a treacherous 5th column who will tear Turkey apart is allowed to gain political power. The HDP and their supporter’s maintenance of calm in the face of this provocation took much of the wind out of the sails of this narrative, but some pro-government elements still suggested that it was the “Kurds themselves” who planted the bombs.
What we very clearly don’t know at this point is who planted the bombs, or if they are related to the dozens of other attacks against HDP supporters, election vehicles or party headquarters. Of course, many are blaming the AKP, if not for directly perpetrating the bombing, for their encouragement and use of offensive and goading language against the HDP. With Turkey’s history of unsolved political violence, there is a chance that there may never be a clear answer to who perpetrated the attacks against the HDP and what if any organizations they were working for.
We also don’t know how this latest and most damaging attack on the HDP will affect the election outcome. The best analysis of all the available polls indicates that the HDP will likely pass the 10% threshold (barring fraud, which is unfortunately likely to at least some degree). Given the fact that both the leadership and the base of HDP supporters reacted coolly and called for peace in the face of ongoing violence, the bombing may very well serve as a last minute boost pushing undecided voters to the HDP.
The start of a new year brings with it the alternately loved and loathed tradition of year-in-review listicles. During the course of last week, the first full week of 2015 (Monday, January 5 to Sunday, January 11), the major events in Turkey provided a ready-made listicle of the political highlights of the previous year.
The December 13, 2013 Corruption Probe
Though this case broke in 2013, it continued to dominate headlines throughout 2014. Over the course of last year, thousands of judicial and law enforcement officials were demoted, transferred and/or arrest as a result of their involvement in the case or connections with the Gulen Movement, which the government believes is the motivating force behind the corruption charges.
On Monday, a parliamentary committee voted not to pursue charges against four former government ministers indited in connection with the corruption probe.
Also on Monday, 20 police officers in districts across the country were arrested and accused of illegal wire tapping in connection with the case (much of the evidence in the case came from recorded phone conversations, transcripts of which may be soon slated for destruction). Meanwhile, the central implicated figure in the case bought a new private jet for himself.
On Thursday, six private Turkish TV broadcasting companies were fined for reading the testimony of the ministers accused in the corruption scandal on air.
Suppression of Civil Society, Free Speech and Freedom of the Press
This has been an ongoing problem in Turkey, arguably going back to the founding of the Republic and beyond. However, after the Gezi protests of summer 2013, the government has been quick to subject protests directed against them with liberal doses of tear gas and high pressure water. Ordinary citizens, even children, have been brought to court for anti-government statements, particularly when these are posted on social media. The targeting of citizen free speech has gone hand in hand with a crack down on freedom of the press, with Turkey ranking as the top jailer of journalists for the first half of 2014.
On Monday, a protest organized by civil society groups against the jailing censoring of journalists was tear gassed and water cannoned, despite the freezing temperatures, outside the Constitutional Court. It is likely that these groups are connected to the Gulen Movement, who’s publications and journalists were particularly targeted throughout 2014.
On Tuesday, Dutch journalist Frederike Geerdink, the only foreign journalist based in Diyarbakir, the defacto capital of Turkish Kurdistan, was briefly detained and had her housed searched by the Turkish anti-terrorism police squad. She was accused of spreading negative information about the Turkish state as well as PKK propaganda.
On Wednesday, another Dutch journalist was detained and released pending his appearance at court in relation to an act of journalism committed in 2013.
On Thursday, it was announced that Turkey had bought 1.9 million new tear gas canisters from a manufacturer in South Korea.
The destruction of trees and the degradation of natural areas in the service of economic and industrial progress was a major source of controversy throughout 2014. The start of construction on the new Istanbul airport, the ongoing work on the third Bosphorus bridge and the completion of the new presidential palace as well as smaller incidents like the cutting of olive groves for the building of a new power plant meant that hardly a week went by in 2014 without a story featuring a photo of muddy, clear-cut land. Many infrastructure projects, including the ones mentioned above, went ahead despite court orders and civilian protests.
A large number of cedar trees in an old growth forest were cut over the previous weekend to make way for a marble quarry, triggering a protest by hundreds of locals on Monday.
On Friday, there was a rare victory for environmental activists when a court order suspended the sale of coastal land that was slated for development. The land in question is a sea turtle nesting ground and beloved by locals and tourists alike.
The proposals for maternal leave and parental accommodation in employment announced Thursday were greeted with skepticism as they came on the heels of many statements by the government encouraging a more maternal, traditional role for women.
The Kurdish Settlement
The ongoing dialogue between the government and the long-oppressed Kurdish minority population was on shaky ground for most of 2014. A number of Kurdish civilians were killed by police and police and military personal were killed in attacks which likely linked to the PKK. Little to no progress was made on allowing for greater cultural rights such as Kurdish-language primary schools. Most notorious was the actions of the Turkish government after the Kurdish Syrian town of Kobane was attacked by the Islamic State. While Turkey did allow civilians to flee across the border in fits and starts, the Turkish government’s refused to let Turkish Kurds cross the border to join the fighting and made it clear that it had no interest in providing official military aid. The Turkish government brought into question its commitment to the peace progress when President Erdogan equated the PKK (whose jailed leader was critical to starting and sustaining the peace process) with the Islamic State. The situation in Kobane, and the widespread (mis)perception that Turkish government was secretly supporting the Islamic State, lead to riots in Kurdish majority areas. Dozens of civilians and two police officers died and scores were arrested. There were also deaths as the result of intra-Kurdish violence.
On Monday, a pro-government paper announced that there would soon be a new set of laws introduced that “will put an end to the country’s Kurdish issue.” According to the article, the new laws will include measures to disarm, repatriate and reintegrate into society members of the PKK, though exactly how this will be carried out is unclear. It was not announced when this legal package would be introduced in parliament. Previous legal packages meant to reconcile previous legal discrimination of Turkey’s Kurdish citizens have been met with mixed reviews at best.
On Wednesday, a 14 year old boy was shot and killed by police during intra-Kurdish clashes in the town of Cizre.
International Diplomacy or Lack There Of
Turkey’s international relations continued on their downward spiral in 2014. Relations were strained even with long-time allies such as the US and efforts to restart Turkey’s long idle EU ascension progress basically went no where. True to form, Erdogan and members of the AKP made multiple un-diplomatic statements that only added to Turkey’s perception problem abroad.
After the attack last week in Paris on the staff of the Charlie Hebdo satire magazine, Prime Minister Davutoglu released an unequivocal condemnation while other members of the government, including President Erdogan, choose to try to shift some of the blame for the attacks to what they perceive as Europe’s widespread Islamophobia. Other members of the AKP speculated that the attacks were staged and/or part of an elaborate conspiracy.
This is one of the few categories in which last week unfortunately stands out from 2014. The major terrorism related incident of 2014 was the kidnapping but eventual safe release of the staff of the Turkish consulate in Mosul. However, there had not been a major terrorist attack targeting civilians in Turkey since the attempted suicide bombing of the US Embassy in Ankara and Reyhanli car bombings in February and May respectively of 2013.
On Tuesday, a woman walked into a police station in the old city area of Istanbul and blew herself up, killing one police officer and seriously wounding another. The Revolutionary People’s Liberation Front, the militant leftist organization that perpetrated the 2013 US Embassy bombing, initially took credit for the attack. However, it was latter forced to retract its statements when it was revealed that the bomber was not a member of the group as originally thought, but likely a Chechen in Istanbul on a tourist visa.
On Saturday, two bombs were found in two different Istanbul shopping malls but safely removed and destroyed before they could explode. It is unclear who planted the bombs and why.
It is important to note that there were a few major issues and events of 2014 that was noticeably absent from the major stories last week, including the ongoing refugee crisis and the Soma disaster.
What’s in Store for 2015
It’s likely we’ll be seeing a lot more of the same. Most if not all of the issues above, including suppression of the press, lack of environmental stewardship and failing foreign relations are chronic problems that will take years to fix. Despite their absence from the headlines last week, both refugees and industrial safety problems are guaranteed to make an appearance multiple times in 2015 as well. There is a general election coming up in June of this year, and due to the main opposition’s lack of organization, popularity and general political acumen, in all likelihood we can look forward to continued political domination by the AKP.
The serious new developments from last week were the bombings in Istanbul. It is unclear what motivated the suicide bomber. There are speculations she may have had connections to the Islamic State, though IS has not taken responsibility for the attack. This may very well be an isolated incident but the second attempted bombing coming close on its heels makes it more worrying. Unfortunately, we again don’t know what motivated the bomber or bombers in the second incident and no one has taken responsibility. These two incidents mark a fairly ominous start to 2015 for Turkey and we can only hope that they are indeed an anomaly. Istanbul has experienced and recovered from terrorist attacks in the recent past.
The possible involvement of IS, until ruled out, is deeply troubling. The lack of credit for the bombings could be a deliberate strategy on the part of IS. If they are indeed behind the attacks, the Islamic State might be trying to avoid drawing the direct wrath of Turkey. IS’s territory shares long borders with Turkey and is reliant on foreign recruits and supplies being funneled through Turkey. Turkey has faced harsh criticism for not doing more to stop the flow of foreign fighters, including those loyal to the Islamic State, across its southern border. If IS has started targeting Istanbul, it may hard to thwart them. Turkey would have to finally plug the leaks in its admittedly very long and hard to defend southern border. Perhaps more dangerous are the IS sympathizers, both Turks and foreigners, already in Turkey. As the attacks in Paris demonstrate, even terrorists already under suspicion by the state can manage to pull off deadly attacks.